Fear and Loathing in Ukraine

Sitting at the bar in Habana and sipping on my mojito, I watched the spinning ceiling fan keeping time with the subdued Cuban music. An older gentleman to my right was doing his best to convince a married woman that her relationship with her husband would be enhanced if she only consented to begin one with him. To my left a solitary man in a suit stared at his old fashioned, contemplating some inner demons. The bartender seemed affable enough to all of his parishioners, but he had that distant look in his eyes suggesting he was living in some undefinable future.

 

This scene reminded me that all human relations, especially international human relations, have motivations that may be secret, undefined, or even irrational. Look long enough, though, and a relative predictability begins to emerge…

 

…except in the Middle East and Sub Saharan Africa… those places are seriously disturbing. This discussion, though, is on a far more understandable geographic region: Eastern Europe
and, more specifically, Ukraine.

 

As you all know… because the Biden Administration demands you know, Vlad the Putin has amassed his army on the border of Ukraine. He did this a number of months ago, and the fear of an invasion rose gently, but not dramatically.

 

Then Biden was forced to look at his poll numbers and come to the realization that his creepy whispering campaign, his dismissal of reporters, his Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation, supply chain disruption, the border crisis, increases in crime, etc., etc., etc., were threatening his presidency.

The typical solution: Look to foreign threats to distract and scare the population at home.

 

Vlad, with his boys and girls running exercises on the border of Ukraine, was everything he needed. After all, Trump became president because of Russia meddling. Putin sees the dissolution of the USSR as a catastrophe, and one could assume he wants to build it back again. (At least, that is what the Administration, as well as their publicity division, the legacy media, wants us to believe; international media does not necessarily paint the same agenda.) To a limited extent this is kind of personal for Sandy, Carolyn, and myself. Chaney is in Latvia right now a few miles from the Russian border. She is a double major at West Point: Defense Strategic Studies, as well as Russian. This semester she is stationed in Latvia doing a complete Russian immersion program. If Vlad decides to march into Ukraine, there is the real possibility of a second simultaneous action by Belarus (under Russian direction) moving into the Baltic Republics.

 

So, for us this is not purely academic.

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Putin has a calculus to deal with. When he first began amassing troops on the border in the fall, there was little likelihood of an imminent invasion. Far better to wait for the permafrost to settle in around February or March to allow for easier movement of heavy armor.

 

Well… here we are.

 

One thing Putin realizes is that the United States, more specifically the Biden Administration, needs this conflict more than he does. Even Ukraine realizes this as they screamed at the Biden Administration to tone down their rhetoric (not normal for a country that is theoretically about to be invaded).

 

Vlad’s original calculus was to be paid (literally) by the Biden Administration to move the troops back towards the Russian interior so President Biden could wave a piece of paper in the air and declare “peace in our time”, explaining to the American people why his brand of diplomacy was so much more effective than… ”the other guy”.

 

It may be that Putin is reevaluating his position though.

 

He is well aware of Biden’s longevity, and the longevity of the Democratic Party in the United States. He’s maybe looking at this as being a legitimate opportunity to gain some real estate. The most dangerous person in the world is a weak leader, for he can spur cataclysmic conflicts.

 

Joe Biden has proven himself to be the “most dangerous man in the world”.

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Comments (8)

  • Clarence "CJ" Moore Reply

    Joe Biden is a criminal and should be treated as such. He is corrupt and soon, IMO the Military Tribunals will happen. It will happen to all that are corrupt and that includes many more of the Deep State (DS) including the corrupt DOJ and FBI.

    NOTHING WILL HAPPEN to Ukraine or Russia. The Biden and the DS are trying to cover up their corrupt dealings with the previous Ukrainian Government and oil deals. Russia is NOT IN A POSITION to attack. They do not have the money to attack. Additionally, WHAT do they gain from attacking? All of this WAR rhetoric is coming from the Biden Administration. Additionally, UKRAINE is not a NATO ALLY! NATO will not fight either because Ukraine is not a NATO member.

    The DEEP STATES only defense is Russia, Russia, Russia. They are protecting CHINA and their own. Again, my TINFOIL HAT theory is that it’s only a matter of time all the DS and Bad actors will be exposed. The LAMESTREAM MEDIA will be the next domino to fall.

    I could say quite a bit more, however, I don’t want to be deemed a “Conspiracy Theorist” of Coo Coo for Cocoa Puffs type of person.

    02/09/2022 at 09:19
  • Dave Belovsky Reply

    Always great pleasure reading your articles. Take care and God bless

    02/09/2022 at 09:26
  • Robert Hagler Reply

    Spot on! Weak leader indeed. I am not forgetting that at the end of the Obama administration, just after the 2016 election, that then President Obama expelled Russian diplomats from the United States and hastily “re-arranged” our intel community. That was a very curious move. We all know now, after the false Trump/Russian collusion fiasco that all of these actions are nefarious at best. There is a lot going on behind the proverbial curtain that we citizens don’t know about, and powerful people at the top of our government (or were at the top) are trying to hide from the American public. Perhaps the biggest scandals in US History? This is my theory and I am sticking to it until proven otherwise. Thanks always for your provocative insights.

    02/09/2022 at 09:46
  • Susie Morris Reply

    Yes Joe Biden is the most dangerous man in the world and that is saying a lot. Prayers for Chaney’s safety.

    02/09/2022 at 11:27
  • Eddie Ramos Reply

    I tend to agree with your statement that “He’s maybe looking at this as being a legitimate opportunity to gain some real estate.” I hope and pray that cooler heads prevail. Excellent article.

    02/09/2022 at 16:14
  • Sergei Grichine Reply

    Anybody following Russian language press, as I do daily, would conclude that everybody there is terrified with the possibility of conflict, and they see current demonstration of force as a way to prevent it. The only way Russians will engage is when somebody seriously attacks Donbass separatists – something even the equally terrified Ukrainian government is trying to avoid at all costs, although they aren’t in full control there. The hope is that military exercises will end as planned, Biden will declare so needed victory over Putin (preventing the invasion, protecting democracy) – and the Ukrainian civil war will continue smoldering as before, taking 1-2 lives daily.
    Thanks for the spot-on analysis, Steven, always great to read your articles.

    02/10/2022 at 05:13
  • Norm Ellis Reply

    Yep and look who put him in office or was there a choice…

    02/10/2022 at 14:49
  • David Rossi Reply

    What a great opportunity for Chaney to be attending West Point AND studying in Latvia right now!! WOW, talk about perfect timing. Couldn’t state my own thoughts on the Ukraine debacle any clearer than you have. Prayers for Chaney’s safety and an exciting real world experience, never to be forgotten.

    02/10/2022 at 21:49

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